Craps Lay Bet Strategy
Lay bets are like laying the Odds or Place to Lose bets, except with different odds. The concept is that they pay fair odds, like Odds bets, except you have to pay a 5% commission to make the bet, based on the win amount. This commission is usually non-refundable. However, at some casinos, the commission on the 4 and 10 is charged only on a win. Lay Bets - craps payouts are the opposite of Buy bets. You are betting the seven will show before one of the point numbers. Lay bets pay at the true odds of.
Playing a 'Hopping 7Â’s' Progression
By Jerry 'Stickman'
Periodically people ask me about craps betting systems. Almost all of them rely on the premise that certain numbers are due because they havenÂ’t appeared for a while. I normally tell them that in a random you cannot beat the math of the game. The house edge is the house edge. In the long term you will lose the amount of money played times the house edge.
For many that is enough, but every so often someone says they have won a lot of money on a particular system and want me to look further into it. So periodically I will devote an article to exploring some of these systems.
This article will look at a 'Hopping 7Â’s' progression.
Here is the system as it was stated to me.
- Start over with each new shooter.
- Wait seven rolls before starting the progression
- When the bet hits, take the bet down along with the win.
- Start with a $3 bet. Starting with the first bet, the progression is: 3, 3, 6, 9, 15, 24, 39, etc. always adding the previous two bets together to determine the next bet in the progression.
Here is a table that shows the bet, amount invested, win amount (taking the bet down), and profit.
What we have here is a Fibonacci progression. This and the Martingale progression are well known in betting systems. In 'up as you lose' progressions, the thought is that when your number hits you will recoup your losses and garner a little profit. The Fibonacci progression is the less aggressive of the two.
Either of these progressions works as long as two things are true. The first is you must have adequate bankroll to make it through the inevitable losing streaks you will encounter. The amount you require can be very substantial. The last row in the above table represents the 17th roll without a 7. While 17 rolls without a 7 appearing may be somewhat unusual, it is not that uncommon.
If the shooter goes 20 rolls without a 7 appearing, the bankroll required is almost $2,000.
If the shooter rolls just five more numbers without throwing a 7, the total invested is over $20,000.
And what is the shooter is extremely lucky and throws just 5 more numbers without a 7? Our hapless system player will have just over $225,000 invested.
If he should win on the 30th roll, he will win $233,000+, so maybe he thinks it is worth it.
If our lucky shooter goes five more rolls without a 7, however, the investment skyrockets to almost $2.5 million. I donÂ’t know about you, but if I had that kind of money, I wouldnÂ’t risk it on a craps game.
The second consideration before using this system is something called table maximum. Virtually every craps game has a maximum bet ranging from $2,000 and up. Most of them are $10,000 or less. That means in the unusual but very possible case of someone going 25 rolls without a 7, this player is out his entire investment of over $20,000 and he cannot continue.
The math of the hop bet says that a player will lose 11.11 percent of all money wagered on a random shooter. That is what the math says. LetÂ’s see what some simulations say. I ran several simulations specifying a random shooter through an excellent software program called Smart Craps from DeepNet Technologies.
The first simulation did not put any limits on the maximum bet. It assumed an unlimited bankroll and no maximum bet limit at the craps table. It was very interesting watching the running edge percentage as the simulation progressed. For the first several seconds the expectation was a little over 103%. This means that if someone were playing this system and had the same results as the simulation, they would more than double their bets!
This came to an abrupt halt after about 96,000 rounds. At this point the simulation terminated because it couldn’t handle the size of the bet being placed – over 2.2 billion dollars. It may have taken a while, but the long term hit at about 96,000 player rounds.
Next I put some limits on maximum bet size. I started with 1.1 billion dollars. If the simulation hit the limit, it would restart the progression; that is, wait for seven rolls without a 7, then begin betting the progression. After 10 million rounds, the expectation was 59 percent for the house! During the 10 million rounds the $1.1 billion limit was reached 7 times. This was much worse than what the math would indicate, but with such a large limit, the long term had most likely not yet been reached.
Three more simulations were run with limits of $10,000, $3,000 and $2,000. The results more closely matched the mathematical expectations.
As you can see, all of these fell much closer to the calculated expectations.
So what does this show? You may be lucky and win for a period of time. You may even win for a long period of time. You could also be very unlucky and lose very big for a while. Eventually, however the math will catch up with you.
In the long run, you cannot beat the math of the game with random shooters. You will lose the house edge of your bets times the amount bet. Accept the fact and bet the low house edge bets. Your bankroll will thank you.
May all your wins be swift and large and all your losses slow and tiny.
Jerry 'Stickman' is an expert in craps, blackjack and video poker and advantage slot machine play. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines. The 'Stickman' is also a certified instructor for Golden Touch Craps and Golden Touch Blackjack. For more information visit www.goldentouchcraps.com or www.goldentouchblackjack.com or call 1-886-738-3423. You can contact Jerry 'Stickman' at stickmanGTC@aol.com
The concept is: Do absolutely nothing on comeout roll until point is established. Therefore you would place no bets but just observe. If point is anything but 4 or 10 also do nothing. If point is 4 or 10 place Dont Pass Line bet with maximum odds plus lay with maximum odds the other number. So if point is 4 lay the 10 and viceversa.
I am not stating that this is a 'system' but only an enquiry as to whether the casino would allow it.
I know that many casinos dont like observers with only sporadic bets, so in that case would it then be allowed to place a Pass and Dont Pass Line bet at the same time?
Thank you in advance for your replies.
With this betting pattern even if a dont pass is allowed after the point, the dice goddess will smile upon you and the shooter will throw your non-point 4/10 then make the point.
... If point is 4 or 10 place Dont Pass Line bet with maximum odds plus lay with maximum odds the other number.
Once the point is established, you are not allowed to bet the Don't Pass. You are allowed to lay either number and pay a commission on that wager. Given that there is a commission, the casino has an advantage over you, but that is an expected part of the game.It is not meaningful to refer to 'maximum odds' on a lay bet; it is just a lay bet. Odds bets are for Pass, Don't Pass, Come, or Don't Come wagers and may be added after the number for that base wager is established.
On related matters, you are allowed to add a Pass wager after the point is established, because that is to the house's benefit -- you have missed out on your advantage on the come out roll and are at a disadvantage from then on. You are also allowed to take down a Don't Pass wager or a Don't Come wager after the number is established, since that is to the house's advantage also. In summary, they allow you to change Pass/Come/Don't wagers (after the point is established) only in cases where it would be stupid for you to do so.WatchMeWin
Where the dice are ice cold
All the dealers are angry
And the servers are old
Yea, I know a casino
Where the players all lose
They hang out there all day
Just to get some free booze
Try playing the Pass
Then switch to the Don't
You can lay all you want
But they still say you won't
Lots of people sit around and only bet/shoot for themselves, I don't see how this is any different. Of course, all it takes is one supervisor having a bad day...
1) Place a Pass and Don't Pass Bet each time on the come-out roll. This will avoid the questioning of whether you can place the Don't Pass after point is established. Yes, I know that they will cancel each other out but that's the whole idea. Yes, I also know, good luck getting the pit boss to let you get away with that for too long but you might be able to make a good argument... before they throw you out.
2) Go Lay the 4 and 10 when one of them is the point.
3) Then go to maximum odds on the Don't Pass. Understandably it's 1:2 but if I am not mistaken Main Street Station goes to 20x Odds and Casino Royale and Eastside Cannery go to 100x Free Odds, so if you load up it 'might' work (if Lady Luck is smiling...)
Thoughts?
1) Place a Pass and Don't Pass Bet each time on the come-out roll. This will avoid the questioning of whether you can place the Don't Pass after point is established. Yes, I know that they will cancel each other out but that's the whole idea. Yes, I also know, good luck getting the pit boss to let you get away with that for too long but you might be able to make a good argument... before they throw you out.
To figure the house advantage on doey-don't, multiply 1.41 X 2.The Wizard has it all laid out in the defnitive detail at:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics/#toc-DefiningtheHouseEdge
Look at the section on Multi-Roll Bets
Other than some weird looks, I would be surprised if anyone gave you trouble. Casinos really don't make it a habit to stop allowing people to put money on the table. Just steer clear from being that a-hole that cheers loudly during a seven out.
1) Place a Pass and Don't Pass Bet each time on the come-out roll
2) Go Lay the 4 and 10 when one of them is the point.
1) I don't know that any casino will not allow you to bet on both Pass and Don't Pass. The house still has an advantage because you lose when a 12 is rolled.
2) Why not Lay 4 & 10 every time?
Craps Lay Bet Strategy Game
odiousgambitThoughts?
Take this to the bank: something on the order of billions of players since Bank Craps was introduced have studied every angle, pondered every nook and cranny, poured over every fact and fallacy, just absolutely bled all over the table in gargantuan efforts to beat the house. So when you come up with the bright idea of hedging the main bets, you can be sure, absolutely sure, that millions of guys have thought of that before and yet they go home just as broke as everybody else. That's why coming to this site is an opportunity to get educated. You will have to be able to be selective; when it comes to Craps, there are members here who will post wildly incorrect stuff. But you will also hear it said that no combination of bets that have a house edge can result in a bet that favors the player. Each bet has an undefeatable Expected Value, and if you combine these bets, you add the EVs into a sum that is the total EV.